“Hey New Hampshire”, Surprise Us

“Hey New Hampshire”, Surprise Us.

via “Hey New Hampshire”, Surprise Us.

The Longest Night the Shortest Day

Happily, yesterday was the last day of the shortening day cycle.  We are now in what I call the optimistic cycle.  So the days get longer and we have more sunlight to do what we do best.

I extend to you all my wishes for a Happy Holiday season and a Healthy New Year.

Bob

Ps:

This is the Technorati code required for this blog: 6J876UZJ5FG7

Connections and Ideas from Bob Johnson and kmocoffee.com

For several weeks now KMO intensified its efforts to get up a new improved web site.  We are close; we engaged new partner professional designers and SEO experts.

And, we are working on social networking.  And I’ve been working on getting up some new ideas for improving stores in this economy.  So here are the pertinent sites.

www.improveyourprofits.com

http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Kaffe-Magnum-Opus-kmocoffeecom/142132272499650

www.improveyourprofits.wordpress.com Blog your challenges and issues or e-mail me: Hey Bob

www.openacoffeestore.com –> this has ideas for opening a store and the ideas and the checklist (http://openacoffeestore.com/new_user_click_here.htm) are good reminders or evaluation tools for existing stores.

Write to me: Hey Bob.

Get yourself a Facebook (www.facebook.com) page (and please Like – click the like button – on our business page and use it for ideas – KMOcoffee page on facebook)

And start tweeting on www.twitter.com.  My user is bobjohnson1945 so please follow it.  I link all of my blog post to twitter and Facebook and yahoo (I’m a novice on yahoo).

My Facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/bobjohnson1945

So …

Order your KmoCoffee.

Don’t Worry, Be Happy; Better: Worry, Work and Study, Be Happy

Timothy Geithner: "Well, I think ..."

Timothy Geithner made me money.  He was on the Charlie Rose show in March of 2009 and mentioned that he thought the government was going to support in some way the Auto Industry.  The market in March 2009 was hovering around 6500.  I thought that night that ‘this is it’, the bottom.  I guessed right.  But it was a guess.

So I bought Ford, GE, GM, GSX (this only 25 shares), and Citi.  A month ago Ford was up 5 times, GE up 2 times, GM gone bust, Citi basically no change (and I expect it to go back to its old yahoo days but they will need new management).  So I sold Ford, GSX and bought Sirius.  Then I bought more Citi and a few days later Ford dropped $2 and I bought it back.  I realize now that I was trading, not investing.  Gambling, not investing. 

I’m still up a fair amount, but very unsure.  This is the first time I’ve invested (really gambling) in stocks.  For the last twenty years all my money went into Kaffe Magnum Opus, and it is the only investment that has positive returns over the twenty year period.  Steady growth, profits after many years of management support and re-investment, and good prospects, although there are challenges in the coffee industry.

So what to do?  I’m reading Ben Stein, yes, that Ben Stein,  “Bulletproof Investing” and it is pretty good, pushing broad investments, not picking stocks, and diversity.  He believes that you will be well off is you get an 5 to 8% annual growth, basically a doubling over 8 to 10 years.  That would be really good for twenty years.  Invest $1 today and in 2030 you have $4 (1 becomes 2 in 10 years, and 2 then becomes 4 in the second 10 year period).  There is a lot more to his strategy, and it is appealing.  The only question: Will I live for 20 years?  I’d be 85.  Maybe. 

So what about real estate?  Commodities (I’m in the commodity business, roasting and selling coffee)?  IPO’s?  I don’t know.  And this is my dilemma.  And then there is Ricky.  Ricky worked with me for a few years while in High School.  After getting a degree in Engineering he now works as a trainer at Best Buy.  He is quite successful and I am happy for his success.  So what does this have to do with making money.  Yesterday he comes to my home to install a bit of electronics and he tells me he realizes that if he is to become a millionaire he must: Pick the Right Stocks and with luck, get rich; pick the right commodities (his friend has farm connections and made some big money); or own a business.  Ricky is about 23 or so.  Wise beyond his years.  Stocks and commodities are pure bets.  But owning your own business is a pretty sure bet if you work really hard, study, and look ahead.  Look around the corner you are approaching.  So …

What to do?  Sell the stocks.  Invest in my business.  It is my livelihood, and I influence directly the actions it takes.  Who knows what it will be worth when I’m 85.  It doesn’t matter too much because it makes me happy.  I worry, sure.  But it makes me happy.

I am a nail biter.  I worry, and even when I worry, I’m happy.  Sometimes a bit jumpy and sometimes a bit biting.  Overall, I’m happy.

If you don’t own a business, I’d suggest you start one.  Or be lucky.  Maybe you can pick the next Microsoft or Google, or for that matter, GM.  GM fifty years ago (1960) was a solid buy.  And my Uncle Mike Buckley made over a million in GM Stock before he died and left it all to charity.  In a funny way he was lucky he died before the management of GM became incompetent.  And let us remember the truth about long-term investing.  GM had a great run for many years, but in the long run?  GM went bust and is now worth nothing.  So much for the long run investor.  I wonder if this is a mortal sin?  Hey Ben, will I go to Hell in a Handbag?

Bob

Inflation in Britain

Follow this link to the New York Times article in today’s on-line newspaper: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/07/business/global/07pound.html.

It is a good follow on to my thoughts about inflation in the US.

Bob

Help GM Survive Their Loan is only 1% as Large as the Bankers Get

There are three auto makers in our county.  You know – GM, Ford and Chrysler.  (I own small amounts of GM and Ford Stock).

You know that the banks received 1.5 Trillion dollars is support payments.  It will probably double by the time the currently undervalued assets are purchased by the Treasury, courtesy of taxes paid by you and I and loans from the Chinese.

GM is looking for around $20 Billion.   Give it to them.   No brand can outlive the decline in value of its name due to bankruptcy.  There is talk of taking the most valuable ‘good assets’  of GM and selling them to a new company, Good GM, and letting the Bad GM’s $70 Billion in so called bad assets be sold off – liquidated – they say.

I am truly angry over the inequities now coming from my favorite president of all time, who I supported wholeheartedly, and do support.   Why, for a pittance in today’s money ($20 Billion), let a perfectly good manufacturing company go down the tubes  while supporting pompous, feckless bankers to the tune of $1.5 to $3.0 Trillion?  Here I”ll say it: “What the #$%^&*(@#$”.

Our local bank, Sun National, got $89 Million in subsidies.  What??  The money given to banks is pervasive.  Surely Sun National Bank did not threaten the economy.

Surely we Americans are appropriately angry about the misuse of our money.   In days gone by the few bankers who created default credit sways might be tar and feathered in Boston or New York Harbor, satisfying our call for revenge and punishment.  Not today, they just change banks and stay in there mini-mansions.  Polls say 70% and more of us oppose support of GM.  Why?  The banks will still get away.  Letting GM go, and creating a hole in the car market is like hitting ourselves over the head with a lead filled bat.  Nuts.

So what is the reason or reasonableness of tar and feathering our car companies.   This act, letting GM go into bankruptcy, will surely benefit its competitors.  What competitors?  Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai and the new Indian and Chinese cars headed this way.   More American Jobs go overseas. 

Certainly these fellows in the white house did not require the banks to come up with a survival plan.  Rather, those who govern, first the Bushites, panicked and handed out near a Trillion Dollars.  Now with plenty of time to think it through, the Obamerites will give another $1.5 Trillion to the financial industry, and not a drop for the car companies.   What in the world are they thinking - worse - what in the world are they doing?

Who cares about a miserly $20 Billion anyway?  The battle over GM is just a smoke screen protecting the fleeing bankers.  These men and women (although I know of no women identified as rascals) are the modern Merchants of Venice, The Pirate Princes of Wall Street.  First they take our money, then plead guilty, then point guns at our head and take trillions more.

Only in America.

It it was not so sad, I’d laugh. 

Bob

My Dream Job: Bucking Bronco Riding

So Cathy and I and her sister and brother-in-law went to the Arcadia, Florida Rodeo March 13,09.  We had a great time.

My Dream Job

Start to finish this cowboy got involved, took a few bounces and made it look like a piece of cake.

Reality

New jobs sometimes give us a jolt.   A few newbies get a jolt in the early phases of the learning curve.  Hold on to your hats.  These boys take a shellacking. 

When things don’t go as planned sometimes we have to just get up and keep at it.  If you want to see persistence in action rewatch the third cowboy.  I’d love to have him working for me.  Not as smooth, but my goodness he is persistent.

 

Best of Both – Learn How to Hold On To Your Hat

And finally there are a couple of seasoned riders who teach us the secret to work and to life –> “Hang on To Your Hat” and you’ll be a winner.  Watch closely as both of them get in sync with the horse they are working with.  Then let the horse kind of unwind and help them dismount gracefully.  What a way to end the day.  Celebrate.  You will too.

I’m glad I’m a coffee guy and not a cowboy.

Bob Johnson

I Have The $420 Billion Answer: National Bank of America

The answer that everyone is looking for to solve the banking crisis is to not give money to failed banks, rather merge the bank into a new national bank, then  wait for the mortgage asset values (and other so-called toxic assets) to restore to true value and then give the value back to individual and small business taxpayers in the form of stock in the new solvent bank.

Here is how it works.

The Treasury forms a new bank; call it the National Bank of America.  If a bank is found insolvent then merge it into the new National Bank of America (NBOA).  The capital of the NBOA is the full faith and credit of the United States of America.  No money exchanges hands.  That is, there is no bailout.  The incoming insolvent bank has a negative net worth, but that is not relevant now as the US owns the former bank.

The problem assets will return to current market values and at that time the insolvent bank, now solvent, is given back to American Tax Payers in the form of common stock pro rata to the ratio of their income taxes paid while the bank was held by the NBOA to the total taxes paid by all individuals and small business taxpayers.  Citizens or small business that do not pay taxes during the holding period get no stock.

If the insolvent bank has operating losses, they are funded by the current budget of the US; and there is no write off the toxic assets.  The is no urgency to writing them off since the  onlly public body holding shares in the NBOA is the Federal Government. 

Currently there is no arms length transactions taking place in the housing market.  Owners are under duress, bank owners are under duress and so too is Fannie and Freddie.  Without arms length transactions the market collapses.  But if the Federal Govement owns the failed banks then there is no duress.   It holds the assests with asking prices at least equal to the mortgage amount granted when the house was purchased last.  So housing prices will restore to proper values.

Bob Johnson

Be Committed: Stay the Course

We all are committed to a much changed approach to ‘management’ of the economy.  Holy Cow is that an understatement.   WE are committed now and I’m going to work as hard as I can to maintain focus, concentration and committment to Kaffe Magnum Opus so it can play a part in turning the economy around.  As I say in the credits to new music posted on Bob’s Music Blog: “The secret to a good day is a good cup of coffee, every day”.  So I know that I’m, and you, are in the right business.  We bring sunshine and promise to our customers with every cup.

I’m in Florida at the moment and just finished a three day planning session with Robert Kraeuter, president of the company.  KMO  is committed to good coffee  and providing the best customer service in the coffee industry.   I mean we are committed.  While meeting in Florida, for example,  we called the office and reached an answering system.  Immediately we set out to hire an additional customer service person, and on the phone reminded, gently of course,  everyone in the office that “people always answer the phones’.   You can check on our success by calling 800-652-5282. 

So, no one is perfect, but when you find a situation that is not as you see it in your vision, you must make good on the promise, and make change.

Committment.  Either you have it or  you don’t.  The waves are rolling now and we must all pull hard to maintain our course.  Look at your facilities, take a video of your store and critique it; is it what you saw when you started.  Perhaps it is what you saw;  but is it working?  Do you have to change?  Please work fast to evaluate the people, products, promotion and any problems you know about.  Start with the building.   Then decide on a course of action. 

Robert and I had the pleasure of spending three days in a coffee house that provided a meeting room for our sessions.  We saw many things that in our opinion need change and when the owner and the main investor asked for our ideas we gave them in the form of a video and a ‘quick’ checklist of 35 things we would change.  I think the changes could double the sales.  There were many missed opportunities.  There is no charge for this evaluation.

When the waves are rolling  you have to move fast to stay ahead and watch closely for rouge waves.  You don’t want to be blind sided.  Listen to  your customers and give them what they want.  Today I believe that consumers want good service and good communication.  They want you to see eye to eye with them, no shades.  Pay attention and greet them in some way no matter what is up or down at the moment.  However, it can not stop with a greeting, we must deliver what we promise. 

If you have a broken machine, get it fixed, now.  The store we were in had a broken Gellato freezer.  It was down for three weeks (this is the season no less – winter in Florida)  before we got there and as I write this it is still down.  These are people who have money, a lot of it.  But the committment to the business is noticeably absent.  There is instead ambivalence and indecisiveness; these are fatal conditions in a storm.

Most times problems in a business are brought about by the person you see every day in the morning in the mirror, so don’t fret too much, you can change things without getting permission from someone else; just decide.  Talk to yourself.  Are you committed or are you thinking about moving, getting out, or getting a job (ugh)? Well you might have to get a part time job in order to convert your committment into action by raising capital at a second job.  If you are committed, you have to do it.

Obama this weekend said he knew the lobbyists were mounting a big push to get ready for battle against him.  His response was priceless.  He said: “I am too”.  And he isn’t kidding as we all can see – a couple of trillion dollars is getting to be routine.

So get ready to do battle.  Change things, get new allies, maybe get a new coffee supplier that is on your side, not hassling you for more and more and more.  Demand that they provide more and more and more.  This is the time to make change.

I have a vested interest in this business;  KMO is my creation and I love it and work on it and want it to succeed, and it is.  Robert and the staff got a 24% increase in our business in 2008 which means customers get what they want.  The same trend is developing in 2009.  But growth is not the point.  Sure I have a vested interest, but I too will provide what knowledge I have about business, the coffee business in particular, hoping and working so that we may move forward together.

Please listen: You Are My Sunshine or Battle Hymn of the Republic

Sunshine is a happy song; “you make me happy when things are gray”.  You and your product do this.  The Battle Hymn is a call to action, a marching tune that is impossible to resist.  Lets get moving.

Thanks for reading and listening.

Bob Johnson

Give Anonymously – The More You Give The More You Get

We need each others help.  Please help get 1 million donors quickly.  Pass this video along.  Lets get the country moving by doing something for others.

This really needs every bloggers help.  Pass it along.

Bob